Plutocrat in training

Kentucky Derby Analysis 2008 (w/ Bonus Oaks Analysis)

2008-05-02T02:10:46Z

KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS – 2008 (Saturday 5pm - race at 6pmish - NBC)

Called order of finish 1st through 5th for those who want the cliff notes:

Pyro – Colonel John – Z Fortune – Visionaire – Big Brown

It’s a special year this year, as the 134th Kentucky Derby will represent the 30th Kentucky Derby (that I can remember) of my life, the first being at the tender age of 4 in 1978. That said, I long for the days of horses as good as Affirmed and Alydar were that year, as the field of 3yr. olds competing this year is rather soft by historical comparisons.

Two other short asides.

This year I’m providing a bonus Kentucky Oaks analysis (which is run on Friday). There is a “double” bet for the Oaks/Derby (picking the winner of each race) if you’re interested.

The other aside is on “synthetic” surfaces. This is essentially horse Astroturf (rubber, wax, ground up tennis balls and God knows what else) that has been installed on many tracks throughout the country. This makes the handicapping venture MUCH more difficult to figure out, as the surface change is significant and a horse that looks a superstar on conventional dirt can run very poorly on synthetics and vise versa. Frankly they should tear it all out and run on dirt as nature intended, but don’t get me started on that topic or we’ll be here all day.

Anyway, all that said, I am far less confident in picking this race than I have been for the last couple years, but nonetheless, it’s the Derby, so here we go:

Kentucky Derby Field
PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Cool Coal Man Leparoux 20-1
2 Tale of Ekati Coa 15-1
3 Anak Nakal Bejarano 30-1
4 Court Vision Gomez 20-1
5 Eight Belles Saez 15-1
6 Z Fortune Albarado 30-1
7 Big Truck Castellano 50-1
8 Visionaire Lezcano 20-1
9 Pyro Bridgmohan 6-1
10 Colonel John Nakatani 4-1
11 Z Humor Douglas 30-1
12 Smooth Air Cruz 20-1
13 Bob Black Jack Migliore 20-1
14 Monba Dominguez 15-1
15 Adriano Prado 30-1
16 Denis of Cork Borel 20-1
17 Cowboy Cal Velazquez 20-1
18 Recapturetheglory Baird 20-1
19 Gayego Smith 15-1
20 Big Brown Desormeaux 3-1

As per usual we try to throw out the horses that just don’t seem fast enough to win this on paper given their times in previous races and judgments upon their overall levels of class and ability. Then we sort out the rest, filtering between marginal contenders, contenders, and top choices. Then we split hairs trying to differentiate between the top choices to find the pick. With 20 horses in a race when you’re used to handicapping races with 7-10, that’s somewhat of a nightmare. Especially in this mess.

Let’s first though look at the most interesting dynamic of this year’s race. All of the early speed and pressing type horses that will be running forwardly early on are assigned post 12 and out, which means they’ll be a massive move by horses to get out early and get over toward the rail, while the horses inside of them could get knocked around, covered up and will likely pull back some to get a good stalking, or closing position. Lastly, Big Brown (yes he’s named for UPS who is HQ’d in Louisville where the Derby is run), the morning line favorite is breaking from post 20, where only one horse has won the race and that was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 – and back then they used a walk up start as the starting gate had not been invented yet. He is also trying to become the first horse in 93 years to win the race on 3 starts or less (of course only 9 horses have done that, but the 0 for record is not encouraging). Sounds like a vulnerable favorite to me, so we’re going to go against him and bet hopefully longer odds elsewhere to try to make a score.

The key mark I have against Big Brown, is that even though he may be the “best horse” he will have to be hard used early in the race to get out of the 20 and get good position around the first turn, and will likely be pushed by other speed horses. He’ll lead for a while and could be leading from the corner to the mid-stretch, but it is very likely he’ll have used too much energy early in the race to do any better than third by the time they cross the wire. If he wins, I’ll take my hat off to him, and despite this group being sub-par, view his performance as one of the more impressive I’ve seen in my life, and maybe just maybe we’ll have a Triple Crown winner, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Dutrow also used front wraps on him this week and will likely race him in them in the Derby for the first time. Not generally a good sign. Then again, maybe he’s just playing with the public b/c he wants better odds so he can bet on his horse.

This Derby, with the favorite way outside and most of the speed outside seems like a carbon copy of the 1996 running, when Unbridled Song was the speedy favorite in post 19 and Matty G was the other main speed in post 16. In that Derby Unbridled Song broke clean and rushed to the front and got decent position only three wide on the first turn with Matty G also hustled early and 2 wide just in front. In that Derby they ran the first quarter mile in :22 and 2/5ths the half mile in :46 and the three quarters in 1:10. By the turn from home Matty G was long gone and Unbridled Song was in front and took the corner a bit wide, clearly tired. He fought on bravely through the stretch but couldn’t handle the final eighth of a mile and was passed by four others, finishing a respectable fifth. Unbridled Song may not have been fully healthy going into that race w/ a mild quarter crack, but Big Brown has also had foot problems even though he appears to be in fine fettle headed in. In the 2008 rendition of the 1996 Derby, the part of Unbridled Song will be played by Big Brown and the part of Matty G will be played by Bob Black Jack.

Lastly, for all you ladies out there, Eight Belles if she runs will be trying to be the first filly to beat the boys since Winning Colors did it in 1988. The only two others were Genuine Risk in 1980 and Regret in 1915. Winning Color’s victory was a result of a brilliant front running ride where the rest of the field let her get away early with soft enough fractional times to finish out the win. Genuine Risk was a monster of a filly and probably more deserved to win if one could put it that way, and likely ranks only behind Ruffian as one of the greatest fillies of all time. I’m far too young, as is almost anyone else still alive to remember anything about Regret, although by all newspaper accounts she was quite the talent for her day. One key difference is that those three fillies had previously races against males successfully, while Eight Belles has not yet even attempted it. Eight Belles herself is probably not talented enough to win here, despite the historical weakness of her competition, and the fact that her relatively large size for a filly should help here deal with 19 colts and the bumping and jostling. She’s never raced beyond 8.5 furlongs and will be asked to go 10 furlongs in the toughest race there is. Essentially, against that much history I’ll make a filly prove it to me and take a stand against her. She’s likely to be over bet as well on the heels of another filly – Rags to Riches, winning the Belmont last year, although the Belmont might be “easier” for a fresh filly to beat male horses that have been beaten up and tired out by the Derby and the Preakness.

By going with the 1996 re-run theory, we can clearly conclude that if a speed horse wins it will be Big Brown. Therefore all the other speed horses that are outside and have to go with him will likely be worn out by him and can’t win. Further, we can remove from consideration horses that just don’t appear talented enough. This gets rid of more than a third of the field from consideration.

Non-Contenders (7)
Big Truck – Doesn’t appear talented enough
Bob Black Jack – Outside Speed Issue
Monba – Doesn’t appear talented enough
Adriano – Doesn’t appear talented enough
Cowboy Cal – Outside Speed Issue
Recapturetheglory – Outside Speed Issue
Gayego – Outside Speed Issue

Marginal Contenders (5)
Eight Belles – Can’t expect or wager on the filly to beat the boys here
Cool Coal Man – Good horse but likely to press too quick a pace, rail is a tough post here
Smooth Air – Good horse but likely to press a quick pace and have nothing left
Anak Nakal – Woke up in last race, may be sitting on best effort, unlikely that’s enough
Denis of Cork – Training well. Poor post. Appears over matched on actual races

Contenders (4)
Tale of Etaki – This horse has been running well, but other than his last prep race in the Wood Memorial has come up short when up against the very best. Looks to be pointed to a top effort, however has a negative rider switch from Prado to Coa and has a good post position. Has a definite chance.

Court Vision – A deep closer who will trail the field early. It takes a lot of luck to win the Derby from that far back as winding through 19 rivals without having traffic issues stop your momentum is almost impossible. Will also need a fast paced race (better than the 1996 Derby fractions noted above) for him to have a chance. Also ran his last prep in the Wood Memorial which was a fast paced race. My feeling is if he couldn’t get up it time there, he can’t do it here, despite the extra furlong.

Z Humor – Has had a couple races that would make him seem to fit with these if he’s ready to put forth his very best. Has been working very well, so that may be on offer. However, his races have been against lesser competition that others in here and he’s faltered in each of those races. Not impossible, but can’t back with any confidence.

Visionaire – Basically a carbon copy statement from the notes on Court Vision. Needs the same sort of racing luck with regards to traffic and pace. That said you can throw out his last race in the Blue Grass over a synthetic surface as nothing seemed to run to form in that race and he was 10 wide around the final corner. His races before that might underclass them against these, but he has a shot given his 3rd place finish earlier this year in the Risen Star stakes in which Pyro and Z Fortune were 1st and 2nd and so that qualifies him well based on where I rank those two. He is the long shot bomb special as he’ll have long odds on the board, and will need some luck, but if things fall just right with regard to pace (super quick) and he doesn’t get stuck in traffic he just might get it done.

Top Contenders (4)
Big Brown – Could be a super horse; could finish 5th or worse after tiring in the stretch. For all the reasons discussed above, including likely low odds, we’ll take a stand against him.

Z Fortune – A hard knocking horse that it’s difficult not to like. Has the best post position of my top contenders and has been racing against Pyro and Visionaire. Was 4 wide on both turns in his last race (the Arkansas Derby) which was won by Gayego, who drew the worst of the post and pace scenarios. He’s not working spectacularly up to the race but if we forgive him his one bad performance two races ago in the Rebel Stakes and accept that the Arkansas Derby was not a figure anomaly, then he’s right in with these. That’s a lot to get over which is why he’s ranked third.

Colonel John – A real hard horse to figure, simply because he’s run all his races on synthetic tracks. So? Is he a “one-trick pony” or can he convert that form to the dirt? His last workout over the Churchill Downs race track tells the tale as he belted out 5 furlongs in a blistering :57 4/5ths. His figures from California are light vs. these but he could improve those on the switch to dirt and no horse has been training sharper up to the race. The horses he faced in California were also a little light class wise, which is why we’ll put him second best.

Pyro – So, here we are, the pick to win. He was going to be the favorite before his dismal showing in the Blue Grass Stakes in his last race which was run on a synthetic surface. So? What to do? Do you take it at somewhat face value and say he’s off form and all done? Or do you say, he never handled the synthetic surface and no good dirt horses ran well on it in that race, so we’ll just draw a line through it and look at the rest of his record. I’m in the second camp. Keenland’s synthetic surface is particularly wonky or at least can be at times, unlike the surfaces in California (at least so far). Anyway, he’s got a decent post position and he’s been running against the best company throughout his 2 and 3 year old year. At 2 he was 2nd twice and 3rd once behind that year’s champion War Pass, and at 3 beat Z Fortune and Visionaire in a ridiculously slow paced Risen Star Stakes in which he was still able to close from 11th and win. Next out in the Louisiana Derby he ran against no one good (b/c he scared the competition away) and in another only slightly less slow paced raced closed to win again, only this time from fourth. He seems to have push button acceleration when needed and can employ either a closer up :47 half mile if the pace in front of him is slow, or can lay much further back if the pace is super quick. Some will question his speed figures at 3, however, they are likely unnaturally low b/c of the slow pace of the races he was in. Some will question the flop in the Blue Grass – but I’m of the school that running on synthetics and dirt are so different they might as well be on different planets. And his odds will be worth it at around 6-1 depending on how much the crowd gets into Big Brown and Colonel John at the windows.

Longshot Bomb Special: Visionaire

So, the likely pace scenario develops like this:

Front Speed Pressing Speed Pace/Stalk Stalk/Close Deep Close
Big Brown Gayego Monba Big Truck Court Vision
Bob Black Jack RecapturethegloryTale of Etaki Adriano Visionaire
Cowboy Cal Cool Coal Man Anak Nakal Z Fortune
Smooth Air Eight Belles Pyro
Colonel John
Z Humor
Denis of Cork

It really from here will depend on what kind of fractions they run. Keep those 1996 Derby numbers of the quarter mile in :22 and 2/5ths the half mile in :46 and the three quarters in 1:10 in your mind as you watch the race. Significantly slower and I’ll be getting ill on my couch b/c Big Brown will have a chance. Close to those numbers but slower and I’ll be pleased, thinking it’s running how I thought. Those numbers or faster and Big Brown is clearly in trouble, and while my horses might come in, Visionaire will have a chance to surprise.

If you want just one called order of finish it’ll be:

Pyro – Colonel John – Z Fortune – Visionaire – Big Brown

So how do we bet?

Pyro to win

Pyro, Colonel John, Z Fortune Exacta Box

And if you’d like to go deeper into the exotics:

Trifecta (first 3 in order)
FIRST SECOND THIRD
Pyro Pyro Pyro
Colonel John Colonel John Colonel John
Z Fortune Z Fortune Z Fortune
Visionaire Visionaire
Big Brown

BONUS KENTUCKY OAKS ANALYSIS (Friday ESPN2 5pm)

The Kentucky Oaks is like the Kentucky Derby but for the fillies rather than the colts, although if you think your filly is good enough you can put her up against the boys in the Derby, a la Eight Belles. There are 11 going in the Oaks:

Kentucky Oaks Field
PP Horse Jockey ML
1 Golden Doc A Desormeaux 12-1
2 Absolutely Cindy Leparoux 20-1
3 Awesome Chic Albarado 20-1
4 Elusive Lady Coa 30-1
5 Rasierra Theriot 50-1
6 Country Star Bejarano 4-1
7 Little Belle Maragh 8-1
8 Proud Spell Saez 7-2
9 A to the Croft Borel 20-1
10 Bsharpsonata Camancho 6-1
11 Pure Clan Prado 6-1

The 12, Eight Belles, who is also listed as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 should she run here instead in all probability will run in the Derby on Saturday. So the morning line listed above is likely to shift around some with Proud Spell inheriting the favorite slot and likely will be re-listed at around 5/2 or more likely 2-1.

We follow the same procedure as outline for the Derby above.

Non-Contenders: Absolutely Cindy, Awesome Chic, Elusive Lady, Rasierra

Marginal Contenders: Golden Doc A, A to the Croft, Bsharpsonata

Contenders: Country Star, Pure Clan, Little Belle, Proud Spell

Longshot Bomb Surprise Potential – A to the Croft

The likely pace scenario breaks down as:

Speed Pace Stalk Close
Awesome Chic Golden Doc A Country Star Absolute Cindy
Rasierra Elusive Lady Proud Spell
Bsharpsonata Little Belle Pure Clan

You can see from the chart and where my Contenders are how I expect the race to unfold. The three speed horses should head out early and set quick fractions and then fade, although it would be no crime to use Awesome Chic or Bshapsonata underneath for exactas and especially trifectas, as they may tire and finish out 2nd or especially 3rd. Little Belle, will sit just off the pace along with Elusive Lady and Golden Doc A, while Pure Clan and Proud Spell will likely be tucked in right behind that group. They’ll be a little gap back to Country Star and Absolute Cindy will bring up the rear early. As the speed drops back after 5 furlongs or so of the race, Little Belle will take over with Proud Spell and Pure Clan right on her heels and Country Star starting to pick it up for a later run. As they come into the stretch, Little Belle and Pure Clan draw even with Proud Spell just behind that and Country Star doing all he can to catch up. Then it all depends upon how fast they went early in the race. Too fast and Proud Spell takes over with Pure Clan 2nd and Little Belle or Country Star 3rd. Not fast enough and Little Belle can probably hold off the other two who will battle for 2nd, with the other battling for 3rd with some of the tiring speed horses.

All that said, while I dislike favorites in general, the most likely winner in my view is Proud Spell. She has the class and ability to be wherever jock Saez would like her early as she has tactical speed that can put her in a more pressing mode early on if the pace is slow, or more of a stalking mode if it is quick. All that said I would probably want 5-2 or better odds to back her to win, but she is an intriguing proposition for the Oaks-Derby double bet with some horses we like there, with perhaps a few lighter doubles with Little Belle as she could be sitting on a monster race – anything 5-1+ would probably entice win money on her.

Casino Royale

2006-11-18T21:48:10Z

As most of you know I am a bit of a movie buff and a big James Bond fan.
So, he is my unqualified opinion of the latest movie.

The sentence to sum it up:
"Not your father's James Bond, this is your Grandfather's James Bond."

If you are expecting the snark and the smooth this is not you movie. This movie was a much closer representation of the Bond from the books as visualized by Flemming. The plot does closely follow the plot points of the original Flemming story although there are modernizations here and there. No real "gadgets", not a lot if any Hollywood silliness. They develop the characters well and the action sequences are well shot and directed but are much more realistic than in past Bond movies... There are no Moonrakeresque laser fights in space here. For the first time in a long time they are willing to admit there's a bigger evil out there than the chief villain. I would say if you've read the book it does of course lead you to know where the plot of the movie is heading... So, if you've read it but haven't read it in a while I would say go see the movie first. Daniel Craig does take a little getting used to - he's not as smooth around the edges as Pierce or Connery, but that's the point - he's much more a thinking, kick-butt man of action which is a far better conceptualization of the novel character. He bleeds more than any Bond in any movie and his muscles make you believe he could actually do the things he is doing on screen - unlike the octagenarianesque Roger Moore in A View to a Kill. Far more "realistic" of a Bond movie.

If you have never liked the Bond movies because of some of the broader silliness or Hollywoodization, or not so overt sexualization (which there is less of here) but are still a fan of action movies in general then this is the Bond you should see. If you are a Bond fan who has always enjoyed the novelized Bond more than that of the movies (but has enjoyed the movies too), as I am, GO SEE THIS MOVIE.

Major thumbs up. Excited that the next one for next year is a direct continuation...

Ok, I'll play....

2006-10-13T01:38:03Z

1. YOUR SPY NAME: (middle name and current street name)
==> Allen River

2. YOUR MOVIE STAR NAME: (grandfather/grandmother on your dad's side, your favorite candy)
==> Raymond Twizzler

3. YOUR RAP NAME: (first initial of first name, first three or four letters of your last name)
==> R-Fowl

4. YOUR GAMER TAG: (a favorite color, a favorite animal)
==> Blue Tiger

5. YOUR SOAP OPERA NAME: (middle name, city where you were born)
==> Allen Beverly (works pretty well...)

6. YOUR STAR WARS NAME: (first 3 letters of your last name, last 3 letters of mother's maiden name, first 3 letters of your pet's name)
==> Fowceygin

7. JEDI NAME: (middle name spelled backwards, your mom's maiden name spelled backwards)
==> Nella Yecats (I think I'm a chick...)

8. PORN STAR NAME: (first pet's name, the street you grew up on)
==> Muffins Arrowhead (I put the second in the first, apparently...)

9. SUPERHERO NAME: ("The", your favorite color, the automobile your mom drives)
==> Blue Camry

10. YOUR ACTION HERO NAME: (first name of a main character in the last movie you watched, last food you ate)
==> Jack Bulgogi

cmdrbond007hmss @ 2005-09-03T09:44:00

2005-09-03T13:44:12Z

Election & Iraq

2004-09-08T11:20:40Z

Media is of course overplaying the 1,000 death toll mark. If you were that concerned oh liberal media, why not start blathering loudly at 900, or 700, or 500? The death toll is extremely low by comparison to any other major occupation based land force based conflict (meaning the first Gulf War doesn't count, neither do Granada, the Faulklans, etc...).

No matter how much I might agree or disagree with Mr. Bush (and I disagree more with more than most might percieve), I will not be able to tolerate it if Kerry gets elected. Even though I didn't "like" Clinton, I could easily take him over Kerry - at least he was smart enough not to totally screw it up (debate over slashed intelligence/military budgets and not going after Bin Laden aside). I would rather take Bush as is than suffer through a President who, on the toughest decision a President has to make (War), has changed is mind, openly and publicly, by my count at least SIX TIMES. Think the world and country are confused and upset at American Foreign Policy now? What if Kerry gets in - good lord, we'll have a new foriegn policy every month.... something this country and this world cannot afford right now, whether you're in agreement or not with the war in Iraq, that should be apparent. It should also be apparent that even if the strategy on the ground isn't perfect (or what I would want it to be), the last thing we can do is leave (or change our minds about leaving every 15 minutes)...

It's O V E R...

2004-09-01T23:22:32Z

Got the news that I have passed my Level III CFA Exam. No more half a year every year of studying every weekend to fill my head with crap that I need to reguritate in a 6 hour torture session after which my brain is like Jell-O...

WOO HOO!!!

Yesterday, I met my life again and said hello!

Not to sh*t on anyone's Birthday Cake...

2004-08-06T12:11:41Z

I am enjoying a "free" day off today... Since we all seriously busted our ass in the Hancock integration and financial reporting this quarter (and will continue busting our ass through next year end most likely) the 80% of our dept. that actually DOES the work got a free catered lunch yesterday and a free day off today... YIPPEE!!! Time to catch up on everything and then relax and do NOTHING for once...

Of course, the e-mail announcement for this only went out to the 80% whom it involves... ...I can't wait to see the faces of the 20% that are AT work right now... ...serves 'em right, they, put together, couldn't do what ONE of the rest of us does in an average day... ...maybe now this will give them the kick in the ass they need... ...either that or piss them off so bad that they are even LESS useful (hard to imagine).

Oh, and I found out that my exam results will be posted on-line by "Mid-August", hopefully before I leave on vacation so I don't have to spend all vacation thinking about getting the results when I get back...

Hmmm...

2004-07-16T11:13:01Z

I am The Lovers

The Lovers often refers to a relationship that is based on deep love - the strongest force of all. The relationship may not be sexual, although it often is or could be. More generally, the Lovers can represent the attractive force that draws any two entities together in a relationship - whether people, ideas, events, movements or groups.

For a full description of your card and other goodies, please visit LearnTarot.com

What tarot card are you? Enter your birthdate.

FARSCAPE IS BACK BABY!!!

2004-07-10T00:01:02Z

FARSCAPE returns to the Sci-Fi Channel October 17th of this year for a four hour mini-series run...

Woo Hoo!!!

Need for Speed Underground

2003-12-06T03:04:07Z

Think Fast and Furious 2 the video game... since I can't do this in real life, it's awful nice to get out the frustrations on the computer screen... It's gotten bad reviews in a few places b/c no damage shows up when you crash - weak criticism overall... car still does neat flips and stuff, and you know you crashed... soundtrack more than makes up for this deficiency - very fun ride overall...

Time...

2003-11-07T17:38:44Z

Why is it twice a year when the clocks change, my body is totally screwed up for a couple weeks... tired and lethargic bordering on the physically ill...does the mere fact of the Sun being in the "wrong" place effect me that much? I guess so... can't eat right, can sleep well, and am totally unmotivated to do anything... arrrggg... hopefully after this weekend I will have adjusted.... haven't even worked out this week (usually on 4 to 5 mornings a week pace) I've felt so horrible and that's just made it worse...oh well, hopefully by Monday morning my biorythmn will have sorted itself out..

Not much on tap for the weekend... Grocery delivery tomorrow (yes, I get my groceries delivered b/c I absolutely detest the chore of grocery shopping), finish a revised version of my resume, clean up my budget (haven't updated it for 2 weeks - and those that know me, know that's a travesty) and try to work on my horseracing database and research as much as possible.... catch up with e-mail to old friends and otherwise generally relax as every weekend after this one until mid-January has something going on... and post that I disappear into the STUDY ZONE every weekend until June....

I'm baaaack!~~

2003-11-01T21:15:57Z

Decided to get back into the livejournal viewing and posting as everyone seems to use this as the group message board... and I've been outta the loop a bit, so I need lj to help maintain my loopage...

quote of the day:
"I believe the power to make money is a gift from God-just as are the instincts for art, music, literature, the doctor's talent, the nurse's, yours-to be developed and used to the best of our ability for the good of mankind. Having been endowed with the gift I possess, I believe it is my duty to make money and still more money, and to use the money I make for the good of my fellow man according to the dictates of my conscience."
John D. Rockefeller, Sr.

Taking a step back...

2002-11-09T23:36:51Z

Ok, I took a huge step back from the arguement and had an impartial person (who this person is is not important - none of you know them, and they know none of you) to it read most of the posts, as well as trying to re-read them myself from as impartial a persective as possible. That said you may say they are biased because they know me, and do not know any of you - but, they are not someone I would call a friend, they are just an associate - but someone who knows me well enough to be willing to conduct the task I asked for... so it was as impartial a person as I believe I could find.

After doing this I admit, my attitude was at times smug, arrogant, and all the rest that Jhimm is pointing out. I was especially wrong to take such a told you so attitude in my initial post...

However, and the impartial person agrees with me here - your posts subsequent to it contain tone that is also at times smug, arrogant and all the rest... If that is not true, that was certainly how I took it, which I why I likely acted in response as vicerally as I did with smugness, etc. in return. Perhaps your true intention was not to sound this way - but, to me, at the time I read the posts, that was how it sounded. That said, even if I felt and took it that way, after taking a step back, I realize that did not give me any justification in responding the way I did - and for doing that I apologize, and will shut my mouth on this arguement from here on out... with just some minor points of clarification present in the rest of this post.

Saying what I have said above, I want to clarify why I took your posts the way I did. All your opinions seemed to be saying - and I may have taking this the wrong way as said above -
You are less educated in this area than me. Therefore, I am right and you are wrong. I am smart and you are stupid. (I took this as me being personally stupid).
You do not share the same preferences as me, what I like is more correct because I can clealy articulate my taste, but you cannot do the same about yours to my satisfaction. Therefore, you are a mindless lemming only doing what you are told, and you are stupid. (Again, I took this to mean that since I couldn't do this I was personally stupid).
The Republicans are greedy, greed won, therefore if you agree with them, and are happy about them winning you are greedy. (I took this to mean I was personally greedy).

That said, I think it's true (and again this is only my opinion) - that laced somewhere in my smugness and my total inappropriateness of tone was a outline of facts and questions posed, based upon those facts... Please don't take these questions as a peppering or a badgering of your opinion - I admit I did it in a totally inappropriate way and with a totally inappropriate tone - I was trying to ask these questions to say - these are the facts as I see them - how do these facts fit with the opinion you are stating... Further, upon my re-reading I didn't see any facts backing up your most fundemental arguements - however, if I missed them, which is entirely possible, I apologize...

Further, and this is something the impartial reader brought up - it probably didn't help that I was one person arguing against 3 or 4... I realize now that this probably didn't help my pychological approach to the whole thing and made me feel over defensive which perhaps lead to the inappropriate attitude I replied in... That said, I'm not trying to say this is an excuse for the way I acted - it is not - but, it is one likely cause. Despite that I should have realized this and been even more careful and diligent about taking a step back before responding and taking any extra measures possible to ensure my tone did not get out of hand... I did not do this, and I apologize...

Lastly, I want to say I respect you all, even if my actions of the last week or so have not shown it... I value each and every one of your friendships and respect your opinions (even if I believe them to be unequivocally wrong)... I apologize for my behaviour and from now on will try (I may not always succeed) to argue with a much less condesending tone...

Ending the maddness....

2002-11-09T02:24:19Z

As far as I'm concerned I am the person here who has done the most explaining of my point of view from the beginning. Everyone else's initial posts had the tone of Fear, Loathing, and Virulent Disgust because the election didn't turn out the way they wanted...(would you have expressed such a tone had Q #2 gone the other way, and the Dems won both the House and the Senate - I think Jhimm's the only one who might have complained)

So, I reponded - admittedly with a tone of I'm Joyous from the results - I wasn't trying to tell everyone to shut the hell up you lost go away... I was stating what I believed the election results meant from my point of view and trying to generate an atmosphere to push buttons so "everyone else's" point of view would be articulated... Admittedly my tome was strong, and I was trying to counterbalance the strong tone of what I was replying to.

I was stating facts in some parts - something no one else initially did - and as far as explaining my point of view I have done that more than anyone... right down to the defense of the Ethical Philosophical Epistimology that leads me to believe what I do... in my opinion, and it's only an opinion no one else throughout this entire arguement has come close to doing the amount of explaning which I have done...

Maybe I'm wrong, that's just the way I feel about the whole debate. For now, I'm not going to convince you all and you are not going to convince me - I have explained my point of view to exhaustion and near breathlessness (or, more appropriately carpal tunnel sydrome)... If you want any more explanations I cannot provide more that that which I have already done... Read Ayn Rand's books and come to me with questions if you want to know any more... I'm done typing...

My last word...

2002-11-08T00:59:31Z

Respond if you wish but this will be my last post on the subjects at hand: (I know I promised Nyn to get your permission first, but I had to post this - I just left the meat):

The power to tell anyone how their job should be done belongs with those whom are paying that individual to do said job. In my case that happens to be my boss, who ultimately gets told what to do by the Board of Directors who are hired by the Stockholders whose aim is to please our customers which is ultimately where my paycheck comes from... If customers don't like what we are doing (regardless of how much they may or may not know about what I actually do) they will buy a competitors product, our sales will suffer and then the stock price will go down and stockholders will sell our stock and changes will be made right or wrong.... In a corporation the direct link from stockholder to employee is not as direct as in the case of a publicly supported service... but it is their... anyone who doesn't believe that has never been to a stockholder's meeting and just blindly proxy votes...

In the case of a public service, here is what is happening: The citizens give up their money - which is theirs by MORAL RIGHT because it came from their productivity and effort - through taxes to provide that service through the mechanism of the state. Because it is their money that pays your salary they are the owners of that service, so regardless of how much they may or may not know they are have the RIGHT to direct how that service is conducted. Now, I don't agree with almost anything being a state service, but the RIGHT remains with the public, who are the ones supplying the money for ESL teachers (or others) paychecks and they are the ones whose children are the ones being educated, so ultimately the decision lies with them. Now, they should take on the responsibility of educating themselves on the topic before deciding (and who is to say they haven't simply because they disagree with you by a 70/30 margin). But if they don't - that is their fault. - But it does not abdicate the fact that the responsibility and the RIGHT remains as theirs.

Even if Education where privatized, which I am a wholehearted supporter of, the consumers (parents in this case) would decide which school to send their children to - and based on yesterday's vote most would choose the school that taught through an English Immersion methodology. This is where the majority of students would go, as these parents would not pay money to send their children to a school that does not use an English Immersion methodology. Further, because a signficant minority (30%) thinks otherwise, there would be room in the marketplace for a competitor school in which a Non-English Immersion methodology would be taught. This is my true view, as it would leave Parents open to options about how to educate their children and not leave the 30% minority in this case in a position of disinfranchisement and forced conformity. However, as long as Education is not privatized and remains a public good it is the Right of the citizens to direct those in their employ (ESL teachers) how to conduct the task.

Further, Education is certainly not the only issue where this happens. (and as an aside it happens in Education in a much wider scope than just ESL) The Fed was a bad example on my part because it was set up (by a wise policitian some while back - imagine that) as a independent board free from direct government control and manipulation. However, there are other hugely important Economic issues that every citizen voices their opinion on regardless of whether they have a PhD in Economics or have never even taken Econ 101. They do this by the candidates they support and the fiscal policies and ideas promoted by that party... Dems and Republicans are vastly different in terms of economic and fiscal policy and everyone - regardless of education level or "correctness" of their point of view can vote on which fiscal policy they support. They can even vote through referenda like the one yesterday on whether or not the income tax should be eliminated. This has direct and significant Economic impacts! And I am opposed to the way it turned out! Regardless of how much they know about Economics, it is their Right as they are the ones being taxed and they are the ones ceding services to the government sphere from the private sector.

Lastly, if we take the power to decide how public education; or any other public good or service (and there are other examples where people decide directly How something will be done) will be conducted away from the public (the employers of the educators) and away from the consumers of the education that is being provided (the parents), then the questioned must be posed to you: WHO is to set education policy? A "panel of experts"? As said in many previous e-mails, such a panel would likely not always be in agreement with your point of view either - and it is extremely dangerous to cede power to such a body where it can be dictated to individuals how a service they are being taxed for (their money is being taken for, therefore they own it) will be run and conducted, and dictate to parents how their children are going to be educated.... It's not about being right (correct) or wrong, they have no MORAL RIGHT to do so... It has been voted on by those who own the service and consume the service and they have decided how it is to be done... they are ultimately where your paycheck comes from and can tell you how to do your job...
Do you think I think the way we do things at Manulife is always right? no, far from it, there are things I blatantly disagree with and disaprove of - however, I have to do it that way because that is the way those who provide me with my paycheck have dictated it to be done...

Again, I don't completely agree with this approach (but it's better than your panel approach) as it still disinfranchises the 30% minority, so would rather see the system privatized and open to competition - then Nyn could go work in a school where English Immersion was not the methodology taught, and the 30% opposed to such a methodology can send their children (or themselves) their to be educated by such a method.

And others (maybe not including yourself, I can't remember) have argued with me incessently over Economic policy... and they are entitled to their point of view - their opinion is just as important as mine regardless of their level of education on the topic, because they are a citizen and have every Right to tell the government exactly how economic policy should be conducted...(again, they have a responsibility to educate themselves on the topic, but whether they do or not does not abort their Right to have their voice heard on said topic, and it does not give anyone else the Right to take away their Right simply because that other individual believes them to be uneducated on the topic.)

As for people being stupid, well, yes people are at times stupid. And people have done things for greed, power, and selfishness (not self-interest there is a VERY wide difference) throughout history that are just dead morally wrong. This isn't because their stupid, it's because they are greedy and selfish... BUT the answer is NOT to take power away from the individuals and place it in the hands of those who are "elite" or "educated" (from a certain point of view, because as soon as you say this you have to judge who is elite and who is educated) and remove it from the hands of individuals you are setting up the very totalitarian system you so very much fear... this is the legacy of history prior to the industrial revolution, democracy, and capitalism - true progress has only been made in the last 500 or so years when the divine right of kings was finally being worn slowly down and individuals gained the power... The very "elitist" system you are puporting where only those "educated" get to make the call sets up the very totalitarian and socialist systems where greed, lust for power and selfishness would run wild! (don't you see that)...
And I apologize that I inferred that anyone lacked sanity or intelligence, but to not see the Positive progress of human history is a blatant disregard of historical evidence to the contrary (even though you are entitled to your point of view)... and yes, not everything that has been done has been good... I'll freely admit that... but the positives outweigh the negatives (and I would argue that I am nearly as widely read in history as Cyb3rj is...)

Which brings me to my final point on "validness of opinion" based upon "education" level. My point here is this, and perhaps I can logically state it better this time:

Person A has Bachelor's Degree in Subject X but has a lower level of intelligence than Person B

Person B is widely read in Subject X but has a higher level of intelligence than Person A.

First point, as the above illustrates, just because Person A has a degree does not make them more able to judge Subject X than Person B.

Person A has a PhD in Subject X and has Opinion A.
Person B has a PhD in Subject X and has Opinion B.

Second point, whose opinion is more valid Person A's or Person B's? Are they both equally correct because they have the same level of degree? (NO! as the first point illustrates).

Person A is joe blow citizen and has Opinion A about Subject X.
Person B has a PhD and has worked for 40 years in Subject X and has Opinion B.

Third point, while it's only logical that Person C take Opinion B under serious consideration, there is no reason that Person C need agree with Opinion B - they must be left free as an individual to judge Opinion B against their own subjective reality (as long as they are rational - i.e. governed by reason) and form their opinion - they are perfectly legitimate in holding Opinion A - even if Person B does not... And they have a Right to that opinion being held with the same validity for consideration by Person D that Person B does! Person B cannot abort Person C's MORAL RIGHT and DICTATE from on high the way things should be done - especially in a case of a public service or good... (see above points)...

I hope that clarifies my point of view. For any further enlightment on how I feel, I refer you to the following books by Ayn Rand:

Atlas Shrugged
The Fountainhead
The Virtue of Selfishness
For the New Intellectual
Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal

Finally, I apologize for anyone I may have offended in my earlier posts as I was extremely passionate and unable to take a step back and that gets me in trouble with stating my point clearly - I'm not perfect, something I'll have to keep working on...

Two More Points

2002-11-07T03:43:43Z

Voting on Education:
First, the Public has the right to decide how Public Money is spent, either through referendum questions or their representatives.

Second, we have in the past voted in this country on how Science should be taught (Evolution vs. Creation) so it is an arguement that does extend beyond English. We've had trials and legal arguements about it. We've had votes on whether to keep or eliminate music education, art education, shop, and home economics. On whether after school programs should exist, and so on...

Flaw in Logic:
I don't think it's a "stereotype" to say that most who use lj in general are: younger and much more likely to lean to the left of center politically... I should have said "most" in my previous post rather than all... Based on a fairly sizeable, yet still admitedly small sample of lj users that I've seen through my use of it, I'd tend to say the above is a pretty solid statement of fact... It is meant as a generalization not a stereotype (there is a large interpolative difference).

Election Review Part II

2002-11-06T23:39:14Z

Ok, I'm absolutely sick of people thinking everyone else is stupid and I'm smart just because they disagree with the way the election turned out... The average person is actually a hell of a lot smarter than you think - and they probably think YOU'RE stupid.

As far as people voting not having a degree in linguistics, or whatever - that doesn't amount to a hill of shit in a snowstorm. Very few people who vote have degrees in Economics, or Degrees in Foreign Policy, or have been to war college, or are as intellegently "educated" about any issue they vote on. Everyone's an expert when it comes to everything... As an educated economist, I can atest to that as a fact.... By your logic we shouldn't even vote, let's just turn over every issue to those in ivory towers who are best "educated" to tell us exactly how we should do everything, because we don't know shit... Hell, we don't even know enough to come in out of the rain. Let's turn over linguistic education policy to the UMass ESL department - but, wait, why not turn it over to some other ESL department at another university that takes the exact opposite view? Whose view do you chose to impose on everyone? To whom do you now seed power and give the ability to tell me how to run my life and how my children should be educated? Who do you give power to tell the Fed how to set interest rates - Those "educated" folks at the University of Chicago would have VERY different views than those at UPenn.

In the end power belongs to the individuals to decide how best things should be done through representative government. In the end the majority of individuals has their say as is the only practical solution...

As for my being from the far right, well, I'm not as far right as you think I am: I am pro-choice and for far stricter gun control to name two issues where I line up with the Dems - and the 1984ish-ness of the far far Jerry Falwell right scares me to death... But, in the end I am a fiscal conservative, believe that a man, no matter how rich he may be has a right to the property which he produced and no man has a right through any social welfare program to steal it from him. This aligns me much more closely with the Republicans than anyone else... An interesting fact is that most of the Bush judges awaiting appointment are of the opinion that Roe v. Wade is standing law and should not be reversed.

Lastly, he who thinks everyone else is an idiot needs to look in the mirror...(not saying you are an idiot, just saying you need to start with yourself before you so blantantly call everyone else stupid). I am a firm believer that everyone else's opinion is as important as mine, and they have equal chance an opportunity to express their views as do I, with majority being the rule. No one has any right to abdicate anyone else individual right to an opinion to your point through power (non-majority) rule of view simply because you feel they are "stupid, uneducated, or idiots" - 1) How the hell do you know their stupid - simply because they disagree with you? 2)If so, who the hell do you think you are - are you omnicient?

Finally, my previous post was only what I think will happen for predictive fun... if it doesn't, or other things come to pass, of course the Dems. could have a real chance in 2004...

Lastly, everyone should read Ayn Rand to truely understand where I am coming from as I cannot articulate it nearly as well as she can (hell, I'd vote libertarian every time if I though it was actually practical - but, I'll take a half loaf instead of a whole one and continue to vote GOP...)

Election Review

2002-11-06T17:08:20Z

You're all dead wrong...

Let's review winners and losers in the current scheme of things:
WINNERS:
The GOP
George W. Bush
John Kerry - much clearer as Dem. Presidential Candidate
Hilary Clinton - same as Kerry

LOSERS:
Tom Daschele - chances of running as Dem. Pres. Candidate significantly diminished
Dick Gephart - same as Daschele
The Democratic Party

Like it or not this election was a referendum on Bush's presidency and Bush's policies. And, low an behold, it turns out that the following is true: The Majority agrees with Bush that something must be done about Iraq. The Majority understands that the Economic downturn is not due to any Bush policies and his policies have indeed mitigated it if anything. The Majority understands that some personal freedoms must be sacrificed to keep this country defended from terrorists. And, no matter what way the media tries to twist it and hide it and not talk about it, whether YOU like him or not, Bush's approval rating is above 70% nationwide AND IT IS FOR REAL!

As for the Election in 2 years, the Democrats will not retake power in the Presidency or in Congress. The policies that the GOP will push are the very Policies which the Majority supports due to the way they all just voted. Whether YOU like them or not is not the point, the Majority of Americans WANT them; they just voted for them in an election where it was unbelievably clear exactly what they were voting for. The majority will not be "pissed off" in two years time (even though YOU are likely to be). In 2 years time you will see the following: With the Economy doing better than it currently is, and succesful result in Iraq, Bush will be re-elected President and the GOP will hold (or even gain) their majority in both houses of Congress...

Finally, do not believe everything the liberally biased media tells you: Not only do the majority of Americans support English immersion; but the majority of Parent's of immigrant children support English immersion as well - they understand that this is the best way to give their children an economic upward mobility to acheive success in this country. To think a small intelegistia of intellectual professors at mostly "socialist" universities know better is not viable - it's additudes such as this from which all totalitarian/socialist regimes and ideas spring.

Further, so much for all the media blah blah blah bullshit about a close race and a chance for the Dems to hold the Senate and take the House - and that Bush's popularity wasn't "real" - turns out not only did the GOP increase their seats in the House, but gained control in the Senate - This is HISTORIC - usually a sitting President's party gets killed in a mid-term election - it is the first time in 100 years that a GOP sitting President has GAINED seats in both houses of Congress in a mid-term election (last to do so was T. Roosevelt).

This morning was a kid on Christmas Morning

cmdrbond007hmss @ 2002-11-03T07:10:00

2002-11-03T12:10:21Z

Which Founding Father Are You?

Always new I was strange, but a Martian?!?

2002-09-27T22:07:20Z

What Planet Are You From?

this quiz was made by The Autist Formerly Known As Tim

Long Time no post...

2002-07-30T00:01:55Z

Had a wonderful weekend with charitycs in PA... bummed around and did nothing too much - traffic sucked, but what else is new? Called in sick Friday so I could leave Thurs. night took 4 1/2 to get down, but coming back on a Summer Sunday Night took almost 6... ouch!!! - considering I left at almost 5pm - well, either I've got serious mental problems or I'm in love...

Met charitycs's grandfather and old roommate from Gordon (Kristen - yet to meet Shannon). Had a wonderful time poking around Milford, PA (artsy, fartsy, Newburyportish town, sort of - as close as you can come in PA I guess). Although they do have a coffee shop were you can get "Rocket Fuel - 66" (tm) - three shots of Espresso, three shots of Almond Amaretto -and believe you me - That shit works!!!

Had crab for dinner while charitycs got shrimp and scallops over linguine. Although it didn't rain the days were kinda gloomy. Went for many walks through the Hemlock Farms neighborhood (including the "killer" hill - so described by charitycs, but really not THAT bad). Watched "The Wedding Singer" and "Serendipity" two of charitycs's favorites that I hadn't seen before... Celebrated her b-day, for which I gave her diamond and amethyst earrings to match the ring and bracelet previously given. Missed Nyn's and cyb3rj's party - Damn! Have to catch the next one...

That's about it from my world - except ONLY 14 more days until my annual two weeks in Saratoga!!! YIPPEE!!! And I have finally, after two and a half years or so of being bearish (pessimistic) on the stock market have become bullish (optimistic) - hey, it had to happen sometime!

Long Time no post...

2002-07-30T00:00:36Z

Had a wonderful weekend with charitycs in PA... bummed around and did nothing too much - traffic sucked, but what else is new? Called in sick Friday so I could leave Thurs. night took 4 1/2 to get down, but coming back on a Summer Sunday Night took almost 6... ouch!!! - considering I left at almost 5pm - well, either I've got serious mental problems or I'm in love...

Met charitycs's grandfather and old roomate from Gordon (Kristen - yet to meet Shannon). Had a wonderful time poking around Milford, PA (artsy, fartsy, Newburyportish town, sort of - as close as you can come in PA I guess). Although they do have a coffee shop were you can get "Rocket Fuel - 66" (tm) - three shots of Espresso, three shots of Almond Amorretto -and believe you me - That shit works!!!

Had crab for dinner while charitycs got shrimp and scallops over linguine. Although it didn't rain the days were kinda gloomy. Went for many walks through the Hemlock Farms neighborhood (including the "killer" hill - so described by charitycs, but really not THAT bad). Watched "The Wedding Singer" and "Serendipity" two of charitycs's favorites that I hadn't seen before... Celebrated her b-day, for which I gave her diamond and amethyst earings to match the ring and bracelet previously given. Missed Nyn's and cyb3rj's party - Damn! Have to catch the next one...

That's about it from my world - except ONLY 14 more days until my annual two weeks in Saratoga!!! YIPPEE!!! And I have finally, after two and a half years or so of being bearish (pessimistic) on the stock market have become bullish (optimistic) - hey, it had to happen sometime!

Hmm.. I think this actually fits...

2002-04-11T00:29:13Z

img src="http://flyingparty.com/jax/quiz/test_prince.gif" border="0" width="300" height="150">
What were you in a past life?

Wow, it's been awhile

2001-10-14T13:28:05Z

It's been awhile since I posted anything here - as if that ain't obvious by my subject title. Anyway, those of you who read this and who, shame on me I don't keep in touch with as much as I should are probably wondering how I'm doing.

Thing are ok, I guess. Work is going well, definitely have found the crowd to go out for a few after work with, which is important. I mean, there are the people in my department I work with, and then there are a few people at work that I would say I have more of a friendship relationship with... But, enough of that happy horseshit...

I just got a hold of a copy of Jonathan Bloch & Patrick Fitzgerald's "British Intelligence and Covert Action". Which likely puts me on some lame FBI list somewhere, but whatever, I've got nothing to hide. Well, ok, I do have things to hide, but nothing from the FBI. Should be an interesting read.

The World Thoroughbred Championships are in two weeks, and I can't wait. Got to get back into the racetrack... Been playing a lot of Max Payne - almost finished, nice stress relief to just blow the shit out of stuff. Devonai's trying to get me to get into "Half-Life", so I think I'll play it on cybrj's machine and see if I like it...

Been a Hugh Hefner style weekend (no there haven't been 30 naked ladies walking around) just that I've been bathrobe/slippers most of the time... Next weekend is the infamous "Pub Crawl". I hope Alison (Co-Worker, and yes that's how she spells it) goes along with cybrj and nynaeve, they should meet each other - cool people all around. Of course, if I didn't work so closely with Alison I would've tried... But, as she would so aptly say, "That's Life".

Can't wait 'til Tom & Erin come up on the second weekend in November. BIG PARTY!!! And Averill and I are going to get together to go over finances on the first weekend in Nov. to talk finances... Thoughts of him moving in once cybrj moves out next summer, b/c I want to stay were I am for at least a couple more years... If Averill does move in maybe that means we've got to look for a third, but there are a few people I've got in mind...

Also found out that I have to floating holidays, and two personal days left this year and it's use 'em or lose 'em, so I guess I'll take thanksgiving week...

That's all for now... try to keep this damn thing more updated from now on...

Happy Birthday to me!!!

2001-03-27T13:46:14Z

Hopefully you'll all still call me when you want to talk... if this catches on people might just stop talking and start typing at each other...

Anyway, it's my birthday today and 27 doesn't feel any different than 26...

Hopefully I'll have some time to actually keep this thing updated, but I think I'll do a better job of doing so once I get internet access at home on 4/24 and a new personal computer...

Cherio...